The predictions that ChatGPT will 'kill' Google won't age well.

>>Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption. AI will eliminate the Search Engine Result Page, which is where they make most of their money.

Even if they catch up on AI, they can't fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business!
>>

It is relatively straightforward to "predict" the progress of a given technology, in terms of accelerating development, emergent capabilities and unit costs.

It is, however, extremely difficult to correctly gauge the speed at which consumers (that is, end users) will adopt new technology and - importantly - adapt their daily lives (or business processes) to incorporate it.

Google's search business is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla (hence the recent US DoJ's antitrust lawsuit).

It has billions of customers habituated to "googling" for answers. Changing entrenched consumer habits is an uphill climb. It is not impossible - but it also isn't quick.

Equally, tens (if not hundreds) of millions of businesses have built revenue models (with corresponding policies, processes and procedures) around AdWords.

Educating these customers and moving them to new - rival - platforms and toolsets will also take significant effort. Customer inertia is a very real competitive force, one that is challenging to overcome.

As Bill Gates once said, “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”

I believe the market will be underwhelmed by ChatGPT's progress (at a business/revenue generation level) in the next 2-3 years, but when we look back at the 10-year mark, we will be amazed at what has changed - but also at what hasn't.

#chatgpt3 #chatgpt #ecosystem #google #googleadwords #habits #inertia #adoption #technology #ai #revenue

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