This really should not surprise anyone.

One consistently observable 'law' within the technology sector is that when a new technology emerges that dramatically lowers the barrier to performing a task or activity, usage of that technology will surge, then stabilise before eventually reaching a point of moderation or even decline.

Recall blog publishing in the early 2000s. The advent of user-friendly 'wysiwyg' tools enabled an unprecedented number of individuals to launch and publish their own blogs.

However, as with any trend, the initial fascination eventually waned, and consumers eagerly sought out the next shiny new thing.

Who remained? Those who worked out how to attract a critical mass of readers, and turned blogging into a business (profit orientation), and those who were (essentially) polemicists, driven by a desire to share their perspectives on a potential global platform, regardless of their audience's size.

I suspect something similar will occur for chat-based GPT interfaces.

One segment of users will identify how to achieve a commercial benefit, and will adopt the technology over the long term. Others will find a personal (or social) benefit from using the technology and will persist with it. The balance - potentially the majority of current users - will soon find the novelty wears off (a form of 'hedonic adaptation') and will look for the next shiny new thing.

#business #technology #adoption #openai #hedonic #adaptation

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