The jobs number is the easy part (State of AI)

McKinsey Global Institute's latest model of the US job market through 2035 has a headline that will travel: automation could reduce labour demand by the equivalent of about 36 million jobs, while demand for about 41 million could be created. The economy comes out roughly 5 million ahead.

The number that matters is further down. About 11 million people, roughly 7 per cent of the workforce, may need to leave their occupation altogether. Only about 14 per cent of them have what McKinsey calls a direct pathway to a growing job: strong skill overlap, no pay cut and under six months of training. Another 41 per cent face up to two years of retraining, and 45 per cent have what the report calls an unpaved route. McKinsey's own line is that "the next decade's challenge is mobility, not scarcity."

Net figures reassure boards because they balance. People do not experience a net figure. They experience the gap between the job they lose and the one they can qualify for, and the months in between.

The finding I would put in front of employers is about the gate. According to the State of AI summary, about 85 per cent of growing jobs list a credential or certification, and many of those requirements are employer preferences rather than law. McKinsey recommends skills-based hiring so that transferable skills are not hidden by a degree filter. Those are model outputs built on adoption assumptions, and the report is about the US, so I would not read the percentages across to Australia.

My own extension: most workforce planning for AI counts roles that change or go. The harder design question is the pathway. Who in your organisation could move into the roles you will need, how long would it take, and who funds the gap?

That is a design problem employers can act on, because two of the barriers McKinsey identifies, skills overlap and credentials, are partly within their control.

Source: State of AI, "McKinsey Modeled the U.S. Job Market Through 2035. 11 Million People Will Have to Start Over" https://lnkd.in/gKzfnwtK

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